Bank of America spots Prime Day signal for Amazon investors

On June 18, just days before Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime Day kickoff, Bank of America pointed investors to a part of the event that could matter a lot more than the discounts.

Prime Day is typically treated as a read on consumer demand, delivery speed, and Amazon’s ability to pull shoppers away from rivals. 

This time, the bank is looking at how Amazon uses the event to push shoppers deeper into its own ecosystem.

That makes the June event more than a sales check. It becomes a test of whether Amazon can turn deal discovery into a stickier habit at a moment when investors are asking how much upside remains in the stock.

According to Seeking Alpha, Amazon stock has been in the green over the past year, gaining almost 8% in value in the past six months. However, it has taken an 8% beating in the past month.

So BofA’s take is that Prime Day may show whether Amazon’s next retail catalyst is hiding in plain sight.

What Bank of America sees inside Amazon’s Prime Day push 

Bank of America analysts led by Justin Post view Amazon’s Prime Day as more than a discount event, according to TheFly. 

For context, they kept a buy rating on Amazon with a $310 price target, implying 30.5% upside from the stock’s $237.50 price at the time of the note.

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Prime Day is expected to run June 23 through June 26, keeping last year’s 96-hour format but shifting earlier from July, Forbes noted. 

BofA estimates the event can generate about $21.6 billion in gross merchandise volume, up roughly 5% from last year. Growth looks slower than 2025’s 55% jump, but that comparison was inflated by the move to a longer event window.

The bigger rationale is engagement. BofA says Amazon is using Prime Day to promote Alexa for Shopping, which can surface personalized deals, show 365 days of price history, set price alerts, and enable auto-buying when a target price is reached.

Post and his team believe that Alexa for Shopping can protect Amazon’s direct traffic, improve conversion, and drive incremental spending. The firm estimates the tool could eventually add more than $200 billion in GMV and $20 billion in retail profit by 2035.

For perspective, Post has steadily become a lot more constructive on Amazon stock over the past few months.

He slashed his target earlier in 2026 as software and internet multiples took a hit but later raised it to $310 as AWS growth, backlog strength, and margin expansion strengthened the bull case. 

Since then, Post has doubled down on a buy rating and the same $310 target, using a sum-of-the-parts framework that gives AWS the biggest valuation weight. 

His view has been mostly consistent. The stock’s next big leg of expansion is contingent on AWS proving that its AI spending can translate into durable revenue and profit growth.

Key numbers behind Amazon Prime Day’s growth streak

• 2025: $24.1 billion in U.S. online spending, up 30.3%, as the four-day format turned Prime Day into a broader retail event, according to Adobe
• 2024: $14.2 billion over two days, up 11%, showing discount demand accelerated after slower growth in 2023, Forbes confirmed
• 2023: $12.7 billion in U.S. spending, up 6.1%, while Amazon said shoppers bought 375 million+ items worldwide, CNBC reported
• 2022: $11.9 billion in U.S. spending, up 8.5%, with Amazon reporting 300M+ items sold globally, according to Bloomberg

Why Amazon’s AI shopping push has real traction

Public sales data specifically linked to Alexa for Shopping are limited, but Amazon’s Rufus data provide stronger backing for Bank of America’s Prime Day thesis.

According to Amazon, more than 250 million customers used Rufus in 2025, while monthly average users rose 149% and interactions climbed 210% from the prior year.

Amazon also said shoppers who used Rufus during a shopping trip were more than 60% more likely to make a purchase.

The momentum continued into 2026. 

According to GeekWire reporting, CEO Andy Jassy said monthly active users at Rufus were up more than 115% year over year, while engagement rose nearly 400%. Hence, there’s clear momentum, but the question is whether Amazon can turn AI shopping interest into measurable retail lift.

What could challenge Bank of America’s Amazon call

Bank of America’s bull case for Amazon still carries clear risks. 

The first is retail competition. BofA flags pressure from offline and local retailers, which is imperative to consider because Prime Day is partly a share-gain event. 

If rivals match discounts, speed, or selection more aggressively, Amazon’s retail upside becomes tougher to defend.

The second risk sits inside AWS. BofA warns that Amazon could lose cloud share to competitors with more advanced AI technology. That is important because a big chunk of its valuation case gives AWS a major role, and any sign of weaker AI competitiveness pressures the stock’s premium.

Margins are another concern. 

BofA notes that elevated AWS investment needs could potentially weigh on profitability, especially if Amazon spends heavily to keep pace in AI infrastructure.

The final risk is macro pressure.

Softer consumer spending limits Prime Day demand, while Amazon’s history of volatility means even a strong long-term story might not be able to shield the stock from sharp short-term swings.

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