Gold prices have been in a sharp uptrend in 2025 amidst uncertainty related to higher tariffs under the Trump administration and their potential impact on the US economy.
Trump tariffs delivered a massive blow to the benchmark S&P 500 index in recent months, which, at one point, was seen trading down about 20% versus its year-to-date high in February.
And a significant chunk of capital that flew out of the US stocks due to macroeconomic headwinds found its way into the yellow metal this year, driving its price up over 30% in just four months.
However, a JPMorgan expert argues gold could be materially more expensive in the years ahead.
JPM sees a possibility of another 80% surge in gold prices
In her latest research note, JPM’s commodities strategist Natasha Kaneva discussed the possibility of continued momentum in gold that could push its price up to as much as $6,000 over the next four to five years.
According to Kaneva, global investors are losing their appetite for US investments due to the new government’s uncertain trade policies that many believe could trigger a full-blown trade war in 2025.
“International investors are starting to reassess the exorbitant privilege and safe haven status of the US dollar,” she noted in a report this week.
Note that the gold price currently sits at $3,333 only, which means Kaneva’s $6,000 hypothesis indicates potential upside of another 80% from here.
What would it take for gold to hit the ambitious $6,000 level?
Interestingly, it wouldn’t take a lot for gold prices to march towards the ambitious $6,000 level in the coming years, as per JPM’s estimate.
According to the firm’s commodities strategist, Kaneva, if global institutional investors redirect only 0.5% of the capital they currently have in foreign US assets to gold, the inflow would be sufficient for the yellow metal to hit $6,000 by 2029.
“Gold could benefit from this shift, despite its small 4.0% share in the global asset mix. Limited supply growth means even small reallocations to gold can significantly impact prices,” she added in her research note.
Why have gold prices been in a sharp uptrend in 2025?
A sharply higher interest in gold this year is not surprising at all, given its often touted as the “store of value”.
Historically, investors turn to the yellow metal during challenging times like those of a recession, financial uncertainty, or excessive geopolitical tensions – all of which are characteristics of 2025.
Increased tariffs under Trump 2.0 have created an environment of financial uncertainty, triggering concerns of a recession in the second half.
Plus, there’s a war ongoing in Ukraine, in the Middle East, and now tensions are escalating between Pakistan and India as well.
This is why gold prices have been in an uptrend in recent months and may continue their upward trajectory moving forward.
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