A significant batch of Bitcoin options contracts is set to expire on Friday, February 28, with a total notional value of approximately $4.7 billion.
This expiry event, larger than usual due to the month-end, is expected to have limited direct impact on the spot market, which is already under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war.
The put/call ratio for this options expiry stands at 0.71, indicating a higher number of call (long) contracts compared to puts (shorts).
Data from Deribit shows that open interest remains highest at the $120,000 strike price, accounting for $1.5 billion in contracts.
Additionally, the $100,000 and $110,000 strike prices have around $1 billion in open interest each, while bearish sentiment is increasing, with $800 million in contracts positioned at the $80,000 strike price—Bitcoin’s current level.
Traders brace for further downside risk
According to crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live, market sentiment remains predominantly bearish.
“Overall Market Sentiment: The group is predominantly bearish with traders watching $82,000 as a critical support level that must hold to maintain the HTF (high timeframe) trend. There is significant concern about the continued downside, with many members discussing the rapid 17% decline over three days and debating whether recent selling is controlled or indicative of a broader market shift,” read the post.
BTC was trading at $78,751 at 8:44 am GMT.
Technical analysts warn that if the asset closes below the 2024 volume-weighted average price (VWAP) bands, the higher timeframe trend could be at risk, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward the $77,000–$72,000 range.
Meanwhile, Ethereum is also facing a major expiry event, with 526,000 options contracts worth $1.14 billion expiring.
The put/call ratio of 0.52 indicates relatively balanced positioning, though Ethereum has faced steeper losses than Bitcoin in recent sessions.
What will happen to BTC and ETH prices?
With Bitcoin facing heightened volatility, some traders are shifting toward call ratio spreads as a defensive strategy.
This move is based on the expectation that, following the recent downturn, Bitcoin’s price action may become choppy, with a potential retest of $88,000 before a clearer direction emerges.
Deribit reports that traders are preparing for further market turbulence, hedging against the risk of Bitcoin declining to levels last seen after election day.
The broader outlook remains weak, exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and Europe.
The long-term implications for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency sector remain uncertain.
Despite the current downturn, the max pain price for both Bitcoin and Ethereum remains significantly above their spot prices.
With the max pain price exceeding the spot price, options sellers may have an incentive to push Bitcoin and Ethereum prices higher toward that level.
“With the end of the month approaching, BTC options traders should take note: Max Pain for Feb 28 sits at $98,000, with a massive $5 billion notional value. This means the highest open interest is clustered here, incentivizing market makers to keep BTC close to this price. Expect increased volatility and potential price gravitation toward this level,” altcoin options exchange PowerTrade stated.
Crypto market sell-off deepens
The ongoing sell-off in the crypto markets has intensified, with total market capitalization dropping another 8.4% on Friday to $1.6 trillion, according to CoinGecko.
The asset has now corrected more than 25% from its all-time high, dipping below $80,000 for the first time since November 10.
Ethereum, meanwhile, saw an even steeper decline, falling 8% to $2,150, marking its lowest price in over a year with weekly losses of 22%.
“Despite the dip, institutions like Standard Chartered remain optimistic, targeting $500K by the end of Trump’s term. Additionally, Texas’s unanimous approval of a Bitcoin Reserve shows strong government support for the sector. While these positive developments have boosted investor sentiment, it is yet to be reflected in Bitcoin’s price,” Saxena added.
Other major cryptocurrencies also slid, with Ethereum down 7%, XRP losing 5%, BNB dropping 4%, and Solana slipping 3.9%. Dogecoin, Cardano, Chainlink, Tron, Sui, Avalanche, Stellar, Litecoin, and Hedera recorded losses between 2% and 8%.
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