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Factbox-Brokerages scale back predictions for 2025 Fed cuts after payrolls data

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January 13, 2025
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Factbox-Brokerages scale back predictions for 2025 Fed cuts after payrolls data
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(Reuters) -Several major brokerages have tempered their predictions for how much the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in 2025, if at all, after a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report on Friday pointed to resilient economic growth.

At least one brokerage, BofA Global Research, said in a note it thought the easing cycle was over and it was likely the Fed would hold for an extended period. “But we think the risks for the next move are skewed toward a hike.”

After cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the Dec. 17-18 meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers could now be “cautious” about further reductions.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025 after the jobs report:

Rate cut estimates (in bps)

Brokerages Jan 2025 2025 Fed Funds Rate

BofA Global No rate cut No rate cut 4.25-4.50%(end of

Research December)

Barclays (LON:BARC) No rate cut

25 (in 4.00-4.25% (end of

June) 2025)

Goldman Sachs No rate cut 50 (June 3.75-4.00% (through

and December)

December)

J.P.Morgan No rate cut 75(starting 3.50-3.75% (through

in June) September 2025)

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) No rate cut 50 (through 3.75-4.00% (through

June 2025) June 2025)

Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) No rate cut No Rate 4.25-4.50% (end of

Cuts 2025)

ING No rate cut 75

3.50-3.75%

UBS Global No rate cut 50 3.75-4.00% (end of

Wealth 2025)

Management

Citigroup (NYSE:C) No rate cut 125 3.00-3.25% (end of

(starting 2025)

in May)

Macquarie No rate cut 25 4.00-4.25%

No rate cut No rate cut

Berenberg 4.25-4.50% (end of

2025)

No rate cut 50

Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) 3.75-4.00% (end of

2025)

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) No rate cut – –

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025 before the jobs report:

Rate cut estimates (in bps)

Brokerages Jan 2025 2025 Fed Funds Rate

BofA Global No rate cut 50 3.75-4.00% (end of

Research June)

Barclays No rate cut 50 3.75-4.00% (end of

2025)

Goldman Sachs No rate cut 75 (through 3.50-3.75% (through

September September 2025)

2025)

J.P.Morgan No rate cut 75(through 3.50-3.75% (through

September September 2025)

2025)

Morgan Stanley No rate cut 50 (through 3.75-4.00% (through

June 2025) June 2025)

Nomura No rate cut 25 4.00-4.25% (through

end of 2025)

*UBS Global No rate cut 125 3.00-3.25% (through

Research end of 2025)

Deutsche Bank No rate cut No Rate 4.25-4.50%

Cuts

Societe No rate cut – 3.00-3.25% (by early

Generale 2026)

ING No rate cut 75 3.75 – 4.00%

Macquarie No rate cut 25 4.00-4.25%

UBS Global No rate cut 50 3.75-4.00% (end of

Wealth 2025)

Management

Peel Hunt No rate cut 50 3.50-4.00%

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