Insightful Word
  • Investing
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Politics
  • Investing
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Politics
No Result
View All Result
Insightful Word
No Result
View All Result
Home Economy

Global economy set to cruise at a solid 3% growth rate next year: Reuters poll

admin by admin
October 31, 2024
in Economy
0
Global economy set to cruise at a solid 3% growth rate next year: Reuters poll
0
SHARES
7
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

By Hari Kishan

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Global economic growth will maintain its robust pace next year as major central banks implement a series of interest rate cuts against the backdrop of a strong U.S. economy, according to a Reuters poll of around 500 economists.

Next week’s hotly-contested U.S. presidential election could limit the growth picture, however, by re-writing the current rules around trade.

Unexpected resilience that led economists to significantly upgrade their 2024 global growth forecasts since the beginning of the year is in large part thanks to the U.S. economy’s performance.

Inflation has also fallen sharply, with most major central banks now managing price pressures within striking distance or already at their respective targets. 

Global growth was expected to average 3.1% this year, a steep upgrade from 2.6% in a January poll, also up from 2.9% in April and steady compared with a poll three months ago.

The world economy’s rate of expansion is expected to broadly hold up at 3.0% next year, according to a Reuters poll taken Sept. 30 – Oct. 30 covering 50 important economies.

While there were widespread fears earlier this year the U.S. economy would run into trouble from the effects of the highest interest rates in more than two decades, its resilience has consistently surprised economists and markets.

“I think there’s still a U.S. outperformance theme — certainly versus the euro zone and the UK,” said Ross Walker, head of global economics at Natwest Markets, looking ahead into next year.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the world’s largest economy, last reported at 2.8% and driven by strong consumer spending, was expected to average 2.6% this year and 1.9% in 2025.

The U.S. economy has not only outpaced all of its G10 peers but also grew at nearly twice the rate economists had predicted at the start of the year. Its stock markets are trading near record highs, in part from money flowing in from abroad.

STRENGTH FROM ASIA

Other strong spots are India, the fastest-growing important world economy, as well as broad resilience in Asia.

Japan has had strong enough output recently to take small initial steps aiming at exiting decades of extraordinarily easy monetary policy.

Even Argentina’s beleaguered economy is set to rebound next year.

But policymakers managing No. 2 economy China are having to resort to aggressive monetary stimulus and an expected set of fiscal stimulus worth $1.4 trillion to meet Beijing’s 5% growth goal, a target already behind pre-pandemic performance. 

For the bulk of world economies where rates are falling, those rates are more likely to go lower than forecast than higher, the survey found, further underpinning a solid global outlook. 

A majority of respondents who answered a separate question, 147 of 255, said interest rates for the central banks they cover were more likely to end 2025 lower than forecast rather than surprise higher.

But in the U.S. a two-thirds majority, 33 of 40, said the federal funds rate was more likely to be higher, owing to continued strong economic performance and possible renewed inflation pressure. 

“I look at the U.S. economy…at the macro data, the labour market, and of the major economic regions, it seems to me it is the one least in need of aggressive interest rate cuts,” added Natwest’s Walker.

U.S. ELECTION THE WILD CARD

If elected, Republican candidate Donald Trump plans to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from every country, which economists say carry serious downside risks. 

“Republican proposed polices on tariffs – ranging from 10% baseline to targeted tariffs – should be taken seriously, in our view, given broad presidential discretion on trade policy,” noted economists at Morgan Stanley.

“In the U.S., broad tariffs imply downside risks to growth, through declines in consumption, investment spending, payrolls, and labor income. We estimate a delayed drag of -1.4% to real GDP growth, with headline PCE (personal consumption expenditures) prices rising 0.9% more rapidly.”

Among U.S. economists surveyed, an overwhelming majority, 39 of 42, said Trump’s policies would be more inflationary than those proposed by Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.

Both candidates are proposing economic policies that will drive up an already staggering U.S. fiscal deficit.

(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)

(Polling, analysis and reporting by the Reuters Polls team in Bengaluru and bureaus in Buenos Aires, Cairo, Istanbul, Johannesburg, London, Shanghai, and Tokyo; Editing by Ross Finley and Philippa Fletcher)

This post appeared first on investing.com

Previous Post

Column-Financial conditions vs real rates – is Fed policy too tight or too loose? McGeever

Next Post

Micron falls as Samsung says it has made progress on HBM front

admin

admin

Next Post
Micron falls as Samsung says it has made progress on HBM front

Micron falls as Samsung says it has made progress on HBM front

Trending News

Waton Financial soars 400% on Nasdaq debut: is WTF a buy, sell, or hold?

Waton Financial soars 400% on Nasdaq debut: is WTF a buy, sell, or hold?

April 2, 2025
Berkshire Hathaway posts 4% dip in Q2 operating profit, writes down Kraft Heinz stake

Berkshire Hathaway posts 4% dip in Q2 operating profit, writes down Kraft Heinz stake

August 2, 2025
Greggs stock surges as viral Mac and Cheese and improved weather boost sales — is it time to buy?

Greggs stock surges as viral Mac and Cheese and improved weather boost sales — is it time to buy?

May 20, 2025
Subscribe to Insightful Word


    Recent News

    Nvidia shares fall on China sales exclusion, weaker data center sales: analysts weigh in

    Nvidia shares fall on China sales exclusion, weaker data center sales: analysts weigh in

    August 28, 2025
    SentinelOne stock price forecast ahead of earnings: buy or sell?

    SentinelOne stock price forecast ahead of earnings: buy or sell?

    August 28, 2025
    Tesla wants millions of robotaxis by 2025, but will Waymo win the long game?

    Tesla wants millions of robotaxis by 2025, but will Waymo win the long game?

    August 28, 2025
    Urban Outfitters stock slides 4% despite strong quarter on cautious outlook

    Urban Outfitters stock slides 4% despite strong quarter on cautious outlook

    August 28, 2025

    Recent News

    Nvidia shares fall on China sales exclusion, weaker data center sales: analysts weigh in

    Nvidia shares fall on China sales exclusion, weaker data center sales: analysts weigh in

    August 28, 2025
    SentinelOne stock price forecast ahead of earnings: buy or sell?

    SentinelOne stock price forecast ahead of earnings: buy or sell?

    August 28, 2025

    Latest News

    • Nvidia shares fall on China sales exclusion, weaker data center sales: analysts weigh in
    • SentinelOne stock price forecast ahead of earnings: buy or sell?
    • Tesla wants millions of robotaxis by 2025, but will Waymo win the long game?

    About Insightful Word

    • Contacts
    • Cookie Notice
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms of Service
    • Trading tools
    • Contacts
    • Cookie Notice
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms of Service
    • Trading tools

    Copyright © 2025 Insightfulword.com. All Rights Reserved.

    No Result
    View All Result
    • Investing
    • Stock
    • Economy
    • Politics

    Copyright © 2025 Insightfulword.com. All Rights Reserved.