Insightful Word
  • Investing
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Politics
  • Investing
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Politics
No Result
View All Result
Insightful Word
No Result
View All Result
Home Stock

What will US elections and waning US exceptionalism mean for EM? UBS asks

admin by admin
October 19, 2024
in Stock
0
What will US elections and waning US exceptionalism mean for EM? UBS asks
0
SHARES
8
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Investing.com – Emerging markets have been unloved for some time, but there could be some upside with the US election and declining US economic growth potential drivers, according to UBS.

A 3-year regime of US exceptionalism, with 8.3% average nominal GDP growth compared with 5.6% in China, is set to end, UBS forecasts, as nominal growth slips below 4% next year.

This presents a lower bar for EM, the bank adds. While EM growth is also poised to decelerate, EM ex China growth differentials over the US rise to the ~90th percentile of their post-global financial crisis distribution. 

“Every little helps for an under-positioned asset class: net portfolio flows into EM are seeing their longest dry spell in 20 years,” analysts at UBS said, in a note dated Oct. 15. 

Turning to the upcoming US presidential election, aside from the unlikely Blue Sweep scenario, UBS’s baseline of a divided government next month with no additional tariffs is the most bullish EM scenario for 2025. 

Reduced tariff fear, a weak US fiscal outlook and waning growth despite that lay ground for potential flow rotation into EM, the Swiss bank said, projecting MSCI EM at 1255 by the end of 2025, making for ~10% total returns. 

All good so far, the bank added, but it also sees there are four impediments to strong EM returns: weak(er) global trade – China’s housing construction doesn’t bottom before 2026 while US imports and Asia’s tech upswing slow; negligible EM risk premia; declines in US corporate bond yields levelling off, even with the Fed cutting to 3.25%; and risks of higher China tariffs.

 

This post appeared first on investing.com

Previous Post

Former OpenAI technology chief Mira Murati to raise capital for new AI startup, sources say

Next Post

Navigating Private Equity as backdrop improves

admin

admin

Next Post
Navigating Private Equity as backdrop improves

Navigating Private Equity as backdrop improves

Trending News

Earnings call: MTY Food Group reports Q3 2024 results, EBITDA slightly down

Earnings call: MTY Food Group reports Q3 2024 results, EBITDA slightly down

October 13, 2024
Levi Strauss shares fall on sluggish holiday quarter forecast

Levi Strauss shares fall on sluggish holiday quarter forecast

October 3, 2024
Meme coin mania: Solana tokens dominate as Dogecoin fails to recover

Meme coin mania: Solana tokens dominate as Dogecoin fails to recover

January 31, 2025
Subscribe to Insightful Word


    Recent News

    China’s May export growth seen slowing to 5.0% amid trade uncertainty: Reuters poll

    China’s May export growth seen slowing to 5.0% amid trade uncertainty: Reuters poll

    June 6, 2025
    FTSE 100 Index shares of 2025: Rolls-Royce, Fresnillo, BAE, and more

    FTSE 100 Index shares of 2025: Rolls-Royce, Fresnillo, BAE, and more

    June 6, 2025
    Asian stocks end mixed: Hang Seng snaps winning streak, Nikkei jumps 0.5%

    Asian stocks end mixed: Hang Seng snaps winning streak, Nikkei jumps 0.5%

    June 6, 2025
    Starlink reportedly secures key licence in India, moves closer to launching services

    Starlink reportedly secures key licence in India, moves closer to launching services

    June 6, 2025

    Recent News

    China’s May export growth seen slowing to 5.0% amid trade uncertainty: Reuters poll

    China’s May export growth seen slowing to 5.0% amid trade uncertainty: Reuters poll

    June 6, 2025
    FTSE 100 Index shares of 2025: Rolls-Royce, Fresnillo, BAE, and more

    FTSE 100 Index shares of 2025: Rolls-Royce, Fresnillo, BAE, and more

    June 6, 2025

    Latest News

    • China’s May export growth seen slowing to 5.0% amid trade uncertainty: Reuters poll
    • FTSE 100 Index shares of 2025: Rolls-Royce, Fresnillo, BAE, and more
    • Asian stocks end mixed: Hang Seng snaps winning streak, Nikkei jumps 0.5%

    About Insightful Word

    • Contacts
    • Cookie Notice
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms of Service
    • Trading tools
    • Contacts
    • Cookie Notice
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms of Service
    • Trading tools

    Copyright © 2025 Insightfulword.com. All Rights Reserved.

    No Result
    View All Result
    • Investing
    • Stock
    • Economy
    • Politics

    Copyright © 2025 Insightfulword.com. All Rights Reserved.